Thursday, September 27, 2007

Format War: No End In Sight?

It was all supposed to be over by now.

Christmas 2007 was supposed to mark the final “mop up” job by Blu-ray, as they swept the remnants of the HD DVD format out the door.

But like another war we’re all too familiar with, this one didn’t go quite as expected. Events like the continuing lower cost of HD DVD players and Paramount’s recent decision to side with the underdog format have turned what many thought to be a one-sided battle into a fair fight.

Now, a Forrester Research report indicates that the average consumer is still holding out on investing in either of the new formats, indicating high price and satisfaction with standard DVD as the two main reasons for not yet making the hi-def jump.

Forrester, which does this report every year, also predicts a winner...and for the third year in a row, they’re still backing Blu-ray as the ultimate victor. But for the first time they admit that HD DVD just might win if the backers of Blu-ray can’t get more affordable players on the market within the next 18 months. Their research indicates that $200 is the breaking point for most consumers (meaning players need to be that price or less for them to bite).

We know that passions run high here between supporters of HD DVD and those of Blu-ray, so let’s take a non-scientific poll...who do YOU think will win the format war, how soon will they win it, and why? We look forward to readers’ responses!

54 Comments:

Blogger Adam said...

Okay, I'll bite. This is the text of a comment I posted on Reed Hastings' blog on a similar topic:

A format war is simply the height of stupidity, given the nice example of how quickly DVD was adopted by... everybody.

This happened for a few reasons, none of which are being replicated by the HD formats/players:

1) One alternative with no difficult competing choices.

2) Fit into existing home theater setups easily.

3) Clear, obvious quality advantages, even if you set it up incorrectly.

4) Significant convenience advantages - pause with no quality loss (anyone here remember VHS tracking?!), random access, extra features, multiple languages, etc...

5) More convenient and durable physical medium.

So - let's look at what HD formats offer over DVD in these areas:

1) Multiple competing incompatible choices. Not just between HD DVD and Blu-ray, but also between different HD formats. 720p/1080i vs. 1080p, HDMI/HDCP vs. component. People aren't adopting HD formats because they're confusing.

2) Does not fit into existing home theater setups easily. If you had a DVD home theater, chances are you're replacing most, if not all of your components to get to HD - you need a new TV/projector, you probably need some new switches, you need all new cabling, and you need at least three new players to do it right (HD DVD, Blu-ray, and an upscaling DVD player so your old DVDs look good). Not to mention a new programmable remote to control the now 7 or more components in your new setup (receiver, projector/tv, 3 players, HDMI switch, audio/component switch).

3) Clear, obvious quality advantages, but only if properly tuned and all of them work properly together. I can easily tell the difference between even HD movies and upscaled DVD movies. Upscaled DVD movies look fantastic, but HD movies really pop off the screen. But if things aren't properly configured or you're using the wrong cabling, these advantages disappear.

4) No significant convenience advantages, with some disadvantages. Pretty much the same extras, but most discs now won't let you resume playback from the same place if you press stop in the middle, and they make you watch the warnings and splash screens again.

5) Indistinguishable physical medium. Maybe the Blu-ray coating helps, but we'll see about that.

I've gone the HD route, because I really care about very high video quality, and I love tinkering with this stuff. Most people don't, and find it incredibly confusing and expensive.

Is it really any wonder that people are holding off?


The HD format war is already lost, by existing at all, and every day that both formats are available for sale just makes things worse. The only good way out of it is to erase the distinction between the two formats - dual format players that reach the killer price point and aren't filled with bugs.

8:50 AM  
Blogger Clayton said...

I could go either way with this one. HD-DVD could win because of their low prices and ability to buy people off and fill the media with missinformation (such as their TL-51 discs which shouldn't make a difference do to the fact that even though there's more disc space, the bitrate is still capped off too low and players can't produce the same bitrate as Blu-Ray), or Blu-Ray could end up not getting their act together with their Java profiles. It's tough to say... I wish Blu-Ray would've just used HDi instead of Java, and HD-DVD would've used Blu-Rays specs instead of their own. We have 2 formats that shouldn't have existed. It would've been so much easier just to combine the 2 before this whole thing started. But they didn't and it's possible that both formats will fail. Though I am sure Microsoft wont care, since they're pushing for downloads anyway.

9:47 AM  
Blogger mike13 said...

Honestly, I really don't foresee a decisive winner in this one. Both camps are pretty firmly entrenched and the "war" seems to have really evened out with the Paramount and Dreamworks announcement.

If I had to make a prediction, one of two things will happen. Eventually the industry will shift to affordable multi-format players making the debate between the two irrelevant... or the studios will wise up like Warner Bros has and simply release their titles on both formats. It works well in the video game industry and there is no evidence to suggest it couldn't here. But until one of those two scenarios takes place neither format really wins because except for die hard home theater aficionados such as myself or PS3 gamers, no one is willing to invest in either.

11:24 AM  
Blogger Claudio said...

Nobody wins between the two giants. Versatile Multilayer Disc is the cheaper and affordable one!

1:12 PM  
Blogger showtime said...

I agree, I seem to remeber awhile ago there were giant LP size Laser Discs, and a 45RPM size Video CD lazer discs and RCA even had a disc in a plastic case that played movies with a stereo needle. Most movies on the large ones were two sided and needed to be turned over for the second part of the movie . The 10" size had 2 discs for most movies. If history repeats itself, all of the new inovations some, pretty good, some not,might disappear for something better, the last time all of those big disc guys left the market wide upon for two more competing formats "Divx" (not the mp4 movie compression software, but a dvd style disc that you could play about 3 or 4 times when you bought the disc for $1.99 and then the movie wouldnt play until you payed per view more, the player was hooked online like a tivo so your cheap disc wasn't so cheap if you had kids watching it everyday, CirciutCity was Behind that BIG. but DVD swooped in and sunk them all. Im sure alot of people are thinking the same might thing might happen again. I just hope it isnt Direct downloads, I like being about to take a hard copy disc to friends and family to share and watch together, I cant imagine everyone crowded around my ipod, watching holiday movies. I tried Vongo, and it was nice for computer viewing but you cant burn them to disc from your computer, well i dont know how to burn them to disc anyway,its set up so you cant. so youre stuck at home with it. Maybe we'll all see the Hologram movies MIT has been making become the norm, Sweeeeet That would be great in any format

2:26 AM  
Blogger mark said...

For me, personally, it's HD-DVD. Cheaper and better movie selection.(IMO) Also, the lack of region coding helps. :)

Price drives the choice and Blu-ray is too expensive. I fell HD-DVD will win out and Blu-ray will stay on the professional side. Like Beta did. :)

9:58 AM  
Blogger Clayton said...

Player price isn't really a deciding factor anymore, since more and more Blu-Ray players (from more and more companies) are being released with lower and lower prices. Wow, how many words did I repeat in there? Anyway, did you mean the players are cheaper or the movies are cheaper? Yes, the players are slightly cheaper, but that's because the lower end ones are exactly that. Lower end... They don't do 1080p/24p and they also can't handle 7.1 sound. I don't know to many people wanting to get in on HD that want sub par players. Maybe that's why Blu-Ray has been winning so far, because even their cheaper players still do 7.1 and 1080p... I don't know, I am just brainstorming here. Either way, to get these formats main stream the prices have to drop considerably.

1:05 PM  
Blogger Carleton said...

I keep hearing that multiple formats are bad. I'm not sure that's true. What I see happening is more competition between the respective companies. Competition is usually a good thing for the consumer. It is the businesses that will suffer because they have to innovate and lower their prices (and margins) much more quickly than normal. So, although I do see a delay in the acceptance of a high-def format, when all is said and done, the players and disks of whatever format wins will be cheaper more quickly than otherwise.

9:30 PM  
Blogger Cee said...

HD wins...

1. Lower prices
2. Cheaper to manufacture
3. Cheaper HD Players
4. HD/Standard combo
5. Besides Spiderman better selection IMO
6. Last but not least...Transformers! This movie alone will entice people to buy a cheaper HD Player

10:36 PM  
Blogger Clayton said...

To the last poster:

1. Lower prices - On movies? Most of the time HD-DVD's are $5 more because of combo formats so that's not true.

2. Cheaper to Manufacture - Again, not true. The difference is litterally pennies.

3. Cheaper Players - Not entirely true. Right now you can get a Blu-Ray player for about $100 more than you can get an HD-DVD player for. And think about what the hundred dollars gets you. 1080p video and 7.1 sound. But you also give up some of the interactivity that HD-DVD has.

4. HD/Standard Combo - Haven't people been complaining about these? I know some people like them so they can borrow them out (why you would borrow out a $30-$40 disc to someone without an HD-DVD player is beyond me). Plus they have problems. There's an extra layer that causes playback issues which I've ran into quite a few times on WB and Universal titles.

5 & 6. Yes, Transformers may get people to buy players. But what else are they going to buy? They bought this HD-DVD that upconverts, I am willing to bet they're going to get Transformers on HD-DVD and that's it. Though I do think Universal and Paramount have some good titles, most of them can't be released because they don't have the director's permission (such as movies that Steven Spielberg directed).

5:28 PM  
Blogger mike said...

I think price is going to be the thing that makes the format.

The only thing Sony got going with its share of Movie companies in its pocket. Will have a better selection. which isnt fair of a war. Put the movies in both format and then you see who wins faster.

Also i remember those day of 10 inch laser disc, the defect rate was so high!

also Sony is banking on the Playstation 3 with it blu ray drive taking off and they are getting there kick by WII. Their selling but not like they wanted them too.

Personality I hate Sony, call it bad luck but every Sony product i owned fell apart within months. their products just doesnt hold up for me, So i woulnt buy a sony product!

I had reel to reel, Laser disc, VHS, Beta, DVD audio

But in reallity the one who really loses is the people who buy the wrong format. they been burn to many times. The companies dont loses it a tax right off, the peoplee cant write off there losees.

8:00 PM  
Blogger Cee said...

In response to Clayton:

In your own words...
Clayton: "HD-DVD could win because of their low prices"

1. Yes 5 dollars more for 2 formats for me is cheaper.

2. Cheaper to Manufacture - Again, not true. The difference is literally pennies.

You just contradicted yourself right there..pennies in the thousands adds up to a lot! a penny earned is a penny saved!

3. Cheaper Players - Not entirely true. Right now you can get a Blu-Ray player for about $100 more than you can get an HD-DVD player for. And think about what the hundred dollars gets you. 1080p video and 7.1 sound. But you also give up some of the interactivity that HD-DVD has.

Not entirely true...never the less true!

4. HD/Standard Combo - Haven't people been complaining about these? I know some people like them so they can borrow them out (why you would borrow out a $30-$40 disc to someone without an HD-DVD player is beyond me). Plus they have problems. There's an extra layer that causes playback issues which I've ran into quite a few times on WB and Universal titles.

Yes I too have experienced this problem...but this alone wont bring me to buy a $100 dollar more blu-ray player.

I guess ive always rooted for the under dog...never owned a/any PS
and Hardly supported Sony's products as a whole cuz most of my friends do.

i guess i just hope HD wins...though most likely there will be no winner, most likely a cheaper universal player will solve the problems.

12:03 PM  
Blogger Kuruption said...

It's a tough call. Currently I'm supporting both formats, but I prefer HD DVD. I like the combo disc format, but it seems like a lot of those are being issued without the standard def version on the flipside of the disc. I tend to agree with Forrester, it's Blu Ray's battle to lose, but a 60/40 edge by Blu Ray is hardly dominating. Then you have reports from Netflix that more people are renting HD DVD over BD, The Paramount/Dreamworks debacle, and the rumored $200 HD DVD players hitting stateside this year. Compile that with Transformers, Bourne, and Shrek all exclusive, HD DVD is in a really good position. I've always said that it's a Marathon and not a Sprint.

6:53 PM  
Blogger Clayton said...

1. But what is the point to having the DVD side? Personally, if I buy an HD movie, I will watch the HD version. Not the standard one.

2. Do you think "thousands" of pennies will matter to this multi-billion dollar companies? I am guessing not but that's just me. Also, it depends on how you look at it. HD-DVD is more expensive when you look at price per gb.

But it's not just about the discs not playing, it's about what you get for the $100. You get 1080p, 24fps, 7.1 sound, and discs that work. But I do think once Sony matches Toshiba's prices (man they have to be taking such a HUGE loss since both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD aren't doing so well) that the war will pretty much be over. Also, Blu-Ray is really not just Sony. Panasonic actually has more invested in Blu-Ray than Sony does (which is odd to me, but whatever). Like I said though, I don't think either format will win. Even with a cheap dualformat player, most consumers wont buy into it because then they'll have to pick which format to actually buy it on. Their heads may litterally expload. It'll be a mess.

4:16 PM  
Blogger Bill Laswell said...

Blu-ray will win by the end of January 2009.
Developments throughout 2008 will surprise all of you and some of them could be hinted at come CES 2008 in January.

Microsoft
Toshiba
Viacom
Universal

vs.

Sony
Philips
Samsung
Denon
Matsushita (Panasonic)
JVC
Pioneer
Sharp
Marantz
Hitachi
Mitsubishi
Time Warner
Twentieth Century Fox
Walt Disney Corporation
Sun Microsystems
Apple, Inc.
Dell
Fujitsu

Sorry HD DVD, your days are numbered. Only when one format stands will mass adoption be feasible, until then we're stuck wiht another SACD/DVD-Audio situation.

6:47 AM  
Blogger GSC said...

In the real world, no one really "won" the SACD/DVD Audio war - neither one really took off as planned. As for the BluRay/HD DVD war goes, the format that lowers their prices the fastest will probably win - after many years in the custom A/V industry my observation is that the average consumer is more concerned with price - not quality. As for myself, I will continue to use my BluRay as my primary player and my HD DVD for movies not available on BluRay......

9:06 AM  
Blogger Sean said...

To Clayton,
3. Cheaper Players - Not entirely true. Right now you can get a Blu-Ray player for about $100 more than you can get an HD-DVD player for. And think about what the hundred dollars gets you. 1080p video and 7.1 sound. But you also give up some of the interactivity that HD-DVD has.

Although the 1080P and 7.1 sound is great, NOT a single soul I know has a TV that can do 1080P or a Receiver and speaker setup that does 7.1 Sound. Off the top of my head all friendsa and family have 5.1 setups with TVs that do 720 max. And if you're not comparing these setup side by side to 1080P they could care less. Its all about price. First one with the least expensive players without bugs wins.. Look at the new Toshiba HD-A35.. nice...

1:33 PM  
Blogger Gary said...

Format with cheaper player wins. Wow, what a revelation. Could have been predicted from day one. The "average" consumer wants the most for the least amount of money. Always has and always will. Maybe you can attempt to redirect consumers by trying to persuade the movie makers to force them to the higher price player, but in the long run, it is all about selling movies.

8:43 AM  
Blogger Clayton said...

Well you know me now, and I have a 1080p TV, and a 7.1 sound system... sooo... They don't even have 6.1? Cuz that's been around since around 2000 so I find that very odd. But what happens when these people actually end up getting 1080p TV's? They don't have a "future proof" player, they're stuck with a limited 720p/1080i player (like me, except with my Blu-Ray player).

9:27 AM  
Blogger Chris said...

Blu-Ray wins - Holds more.. I'm just going to go with that.. once you start having to drop off bonus features so you can fit the audio you want on there, or not put lossless audio on so you can have bonus featuers.... come on... I want my hard drives bigger, my usb memory stick/pens bigger, my cd/dvd bigger.. Why anyone would want a disc that holds 20gb less (especially since what it does hold is not enough to fit all the audio and bonus featueres on) is beyond me. Did these people keep their floppy discs at 1.4Mb or did they get a zip drive and a cd burner? Do they all run 2gb hard drives in their pcs cause they like smaller?? I think it is a shame the people supporting HD DVD are dragging it out at all. Please for the sake of everyone.. give up lol

2:36 PM  
Blogger Mathew said...

Nobody has a 1080p tv? Where do you live??? 1080p has been out for a long time, whether it be in LCD, or DLP, or now even plasma like my 50" Toshiba 1080p plasma! If all you and your friends have is 720p and you think that is all that is out there, then you are sorely mistaken. Do yourself a favour and get a 1080p tv at your local best Buy, and pick up one of the 20GB PS3's for $399 (launching very soon) and enjoy the show... as for your HD-DVD's... well who couldn't use more coasters :)

6:25 PM  
Blogger Cee said...

I've taken a peek at several HD/blu-ray websites that give reviews on HD movies and just at a peek HD seems to have much better reviews than blu-ray...most notably the movie 300 where it is available on both formats...
Real movies lovers can care less about who wins the war..everyone talks like Sony was going to blow HD away yet here we are about neck and neck with no clear winner HAHAHAHA...the winner? univeral HD players

8:10 PM  
Blogger Clayton said...

From the reviews I've been reading (I don't know where you've been looking, hopefully not places like Amazon.com), they seem to be on the same leavel, except audio wise because of PCM on Blu-Ray. But why would 300 have better reviews? As far as quality, WB ports over audio and video (except for the PCM audio track on the Blu-Ray). The only thing that the HD-DVD has that the Blu-Ray doesn't is the IME. Which I guess the Blu-Ray (according to the director's wife) will be getting another "deluxe" release down the road.

9:53 AM  
Blogger johnt921 said...

HD DVD looks like the winner because:

1. On the gaming front XBox 360 is beating PS3. Especially now with Halo 3.

2. On the PC front laptops have adopted HD-DVD much more than they have blue ray.

3. HD-DVD player price and the amount of movies available are on par or better than blue ray.

2:28 PM  
Blogger Bobby said...

Just get a PlayStation 3, which is a great multi-format entertainment device. It plays PS1 Games, PS2 Games, and HD PS3 games for a wide vareity of gaming options. As far as video, it plays DVD movies, Home made DVD +/- R or DVD +/- RW recorded video (if you have a DVD Recorder), and "Oh Ya" High Def Blu-Ray Discs. With and XBox 360 its extra to get HD DVD...for my money,its Blu-Ray.

2:45 PM  
Blogger Clayton said...

1. Gaming and the 360 has nothing to do with HD-DVD/Blu-Ray (unless you mean the add-ons which I don't think have sold nearly as well as standalone players)

2. Not very many people use their laptops to watch movies.

3. Price has been discussed many of times already and as for movie selection, that all depends on the person. I personally prefer the selection that Blu-Ray offers/will be offering.

11:45 AM  
Blogger jason said...

Only nerds really care about the difference between 1080i and 1080p or 5.1 dolby and TrueHD. The general public could not give 2 sh*ts about this. If my statement were not true then what would be the point of 720p TVs?

HD is HD to the general public. Hell most people think DVD is still the best format out there. But us nerds know better. Now both HD DVD and Blu-ray support 1080p and TrueHD sound. Now you have to think who will provide products to both us nerds and general public.

Sure blu-ray can hold more on its disc, but who the hell cares!!! Who has Transformers in HD and cheaper prices. IF Spiderman3 was a good movie you could make an argument there. Now you can say blu-ray has more movie "sales" than HD DVD....ummmm that’s because we like to save money and rent through Netflix for less than $10 a month. We have spent all of our $ on TVs, surround systems, and players haha. Only big titles are worth spending $25+. Oh and did I mention you can use the Xbox HD-DVD player on your computer Plug-n-play!!! Which i do believe is $170 with 5 free movies. Oh but I forgot PS3 is lowering their price to $399...lol

I just want to say that I have 3 HD TV's all with Xbox 360 + HD DVD players. 2 1080i and 1 1080p. Would not have been able to do this if I went blu-ray.

2:57 PM  
Blogger Clayton said...

How would you not be able to do that with Blu-Ray? The price would actually end up being cheaper if you got a PS3... I'll break down the math for you. 360 is how much now? $349? And how much for the add on? $179? How much for the new PS3 that you also get 5 movies with? $399? How many sh*t's do you think people would give for a calculator? Oh and again, movie selection all depends on taste. Transformers wasn't as good as other Michael Bay movies IMO. I'd much rather have The Rock, the Bad Boys movies, Armageddon, and Pearl Harbor which will all be on Blu. But that's just me.

1:28 PM  
Blogger Axim said...

I'll be honest with you, since I am "Instant gratification man" as my wife calls me, I have both. I like them both and at this point I could not care who wins. so as long as any new movies are released in the "winning" format. I would hate to see a studio refuse to release movies in the opposite format simply becaue they did not agree with it for one reason or another.

On a side note,,, it is not fair that HD DVD is more expensive than regulat DVD and certainly not an extra 50% higher.

9:54 AM  
Blogger jason said...

What’s funny is your talking about future prices with PS3. I’m referring to the day 360 HD DVD was released. Oh and by the way as of last week, stand alone HD DVD players are $197........

1:03 PM  
Blogger Clayton said...

Yes but then the 360 was $399 and the HD-DVD add on was $199... How much was a PS3? $599 and $499? Unless you mean you got the basic 360 package without any HD equipment and then bought it all later (which would add up to more than $399). I went into that $197 HD-DVD player in other other post in the HD-DVD section. Apparently my comments aren't getting published anymore though...

9:29 AM  
Blogger jason said...

I think your missing my point..sure I would cost the same to get a PS3 as it would to get a 360 + HD DVD. But I'm a gamer and when buying a PS3, your getting a Blu-ray player with the pirk of being able to play a few games. With the Xbox 360 + HD DVD you are getting the ultimate gaming machine and HD DVD. IF I were to go Blu-ray (for me) I would need to spend $499 (for the lower end PS3) + $399 (for the higher end Xbox 360)= $900 for High end gaming + High Deff movies (oh and no Transformers) Just bought "Face Off" HD DVD only :)) Oh and another thing...on 11/2 many stores were selling the A2 HD DVD for $98.00!!! From what I am hearing if you didnt get one early, SOLD OUT! Tell me one place that is sold out of Blu-Ray players.

9:03 AM  
Blogger Clayton said...

Tell me one place that has cheap (and I mean quality wise) Blu-Ray players for $99. As for the players that sold out, that's because Best Buy didn't stock them. They've been gone for a while. I actually believe they were discontinued a while back but they didn't sell so that's why they had this sale. But not in all states, due to No Dumping laws. That's where a foreign company can't sell a product that's not moving over there, here in the US for less than it costs to manufacture it. And you didn't say it was for gaming, you were talking about pricing. As for Face/Off, I'd hate to tell you this but it's actually on Blu-Ray in the U.K. (and Japan) with uncompressed audio and on a 50gb disc. And it will play on U.S. Blu-Ray players.

1:42 PM  
Blogger Dave said...

Ok. I just want to say, HD-DVD supporters, stop!!! You are trying way to hard to support your inferior product. Everytime you try to make an argument, Clayton slams you back down to Earth. Quit trying... It makes you look desperate.

I personally own both formats, because I must have the best toys on the block and I can afford it without any problems. I even sprung for the full 1080p HD-DVD player. I have a 1080p tv, a surround stereo receiver with 7.1 and HDMI inputs, and everything is connected with $100 Monster 700 HDMI cables; so let's just say that I have seen and heard both formats at their absolute best.

So, that being said, I'm going with Blu-Ray... HD-DVD fans (especially the ones whose biggest argument is that HD-DVD has Transformers).. just stop to really THINK for a minute and listen to Clayton. He knows what he is talking about.

3:12 PM  
Blogger harry_evangelou said...

The fact is that consumers lose with higher prices of wither HD DVD or Blu-ray titles and players versus having just one format. Both of them should have a meeting and agree to do what's best for consumers and release just 1 format. Till that happens, I will refuse to buy either one. However I do own a PS3 but mainly for games not movies.

8:53 AM  
Blogger David said...

This debate is really hurting my brain. What is the fuss?!?!?! How can so many intelligent people still debate the obvious? Which will win and when? It's simple, Blu-Ray will win...why? You have to read the entire posting to see prediction on when...:-)

1) BD players are more expensive but we aren't talking about buying an Audi over Kia, it's matter of few dollars. Wise up people, it's about quality and those who purchased $99 HD-DVD players are watching upscaled DVDs, no more no less. You should have just kept your DVD player...It's about quality and this isn't Beta versus VHS. We are people of technology now...back then, we had no PCs!!! Technology has made leaps and bounds since the glory days of Disco...so too have our insatiable appetite for technologically advanced toys.
2) Playstation 3 will soon be the dominant player that PS2 has been for years. In the next 12 months, games on PS3 will showcase exactly why PS3 versus Xbox 360 is like Audi versus Kia...they both work if you are going from point A to point B...but most of us want to get their reliably and with style. When FF13 hits the stores and God of War 3, the next-gen console war will be over.
3) Paramount will wise up and release on Blu-Ray sooner than the 18 month contract. There is no denying quality and just like Disney's choice to go with Blu-Ray, so soon will all the others.

In summary, PS3 and Blu-Ray are the measuring sticks...they are both exceptional! In the beginning, multi-celled organisms ultimately beat out the single celled organisms...but even that did not happen overnight...it took millions of years. It took God himself 7 days to create Earth...so to must we wait to see the dominance of Blu-Ray.

I predict by end of Q2 08, even Toshiba will tip their hat to Sony.

How about that Wal-Mart leak on PS3 deal...I will set foot into that horrible place...I will do so with a smile though.

3:20 PM  
Blogger Bron said...

Sorry SONY and Blu-Ray, HD-DVD is going to nail this one down. As many here have said, because of price and soon because of content. Also, HD-DVD sounds familiar to most consumers (Blu-Ray? What's that?), but the key will be cheap players. And content. Also, SONY is arrogant and their sneaky DRM moves have been onerous and offensive to many -- everybody hates them. Sooner or later that catches up with you.

HD-DVD is plenty good enough, the average consumer does not care about the tech wars fought by geeks on forums, they buy what seesm safe and familiar and they can afford. That's HD-DVD.

6:25 PM  
Blogger angusdru said...

I think that a format that does not support PC/MAC writtable functionality will fail, because the majority of product to be sold will be PC-centric. PC users will not accept read-only functionality. I think this is the ultimate failing of HD-DVD. They claim that they are forward compatible, but this only benefits the manufacturers. The consumer deserves consideration and if they can not reap the benefit of a universal use format, the half the consuming audience is lost.

angusdru

12:56 PM  
Blogger Clayton said...

I still haven't seen anyone say why HD-DVD is better. I see people that think that it will win because of movie selections but if that were true than HD DVD would already be winning. On this site alone, you can see there's only a total of like 15 exclusive HD DVD's available for pre-order. I've seen a lot of "Sony sucks, so HD DVD will win" and "Beta lost, so will Blu-Ray" and "Porn". None of that applies or is actually evidence that HD DVD will win. One person did bring up a good point about Blu-Ray not being a familiar name which is true. However with enough exposure, which has been happening a lot lately with the "I Do Blu" commercials, people will recognize it. As stated before by myself and others, at this point price wont matter. Toshiba's low prices are actually killing HD DVD as we speak. Onkyo's player couldn't be released because of Toshiba's low prices (even though it's the same Toshiba player with just a different shell). Plus, a smart consumer should be like "why is this so cheap? There has to be a reason." Obviously there are reasons (overstock of a discontinued item, and a generally low quality faulty product). Plus I hope that most people that are seriously getting into HD media, and not just purchasing a player due to a firesale, will do their research about both formats. Yes, it's great that Toshiba sold all those players, but what are they using them for now? Apparently not HD movies, otherwise the sales numbers would've gone up for HD DVD which they didn't.

12:07 PM  
Blogger spierce64 said...

I love these talks.

I own an HD-DVD player and I hope sony falls flat on their face. It is not just BetaMAX, but almost any format that Sony has ever backed has failed.

AS far as picture quality, I have heard no one mention the real issue here. I personally don't care which one holds more data.
All I care about is what it looks like on my tv... HD DVD DOES have better picture quality. It uses the newer VC-1 Codec compared to mpeg which is still what blu ray is using. Ask anyone that has seen them side by side and they will tell you hd dvd looks better.

Oh, and I am watching mine on a 1080i plasma.

I am beginning to think some posters here work for Sony...

9:59 AM  
Blogger Clayton said...

Actually, most Blu-Rays use AVC now. As for HD-DVD's looking better, that could either be a hardware issues or fanboyism. How'd you test Blu-Ray on your TV if you own HD DVD?

1:51 PM  
Blogger OKI-Chris said...

I went with Blu-Ray mostly because well my PS3 replaced my PS2 which replaced my original PS. People talk about region coding on the BD, it has 3 regions and for me there is no problem as I live in Japan and from the US, so I get to have my cake and eat it to. I purchased a Japanese PS3, I can watch any US BD and play any US PS3 game, the only thing I can not watch on it are my US Region 1 DVDs, though I could actually make a copy of all my movies with removed region coding and watch away. Oh well, that is what I have my XBox for since I don't play any games on it hardly. My BD collection is now up to 80 movies and growing. Some are repeat titles I had on DVD, just gave those to a friend as no need for them any longer.

Is Transformers really a breaking point for some people? The movie actually was pretty bad as far as dialogue goes, sound wise it would be pretty intense if one had a real setup to take full advantage, but in a few months it will be released on BD anyways and those that want it, can then pick it up. HDDVD can hardly be found here, I would say BD outnumbers HDDVD on store shelves by about 4-1 if not more, this is on the Japanese economy and it is even worse for HDDVD inside the military base exchanges, where BD outnumbers like 8-1.

Also people always bring up price points, but we are talking HI-DEF here, so why would anyone be ignorant enough to purchase something that doesn't give them true HI-DEF experience and talk up their cheap ass and say BD sucks because it costs more. Go ahead and buy the cheap Chinese players that don't deliver audio or video in hi-def formats, real hi-def not a watered down 720/1080i and just 5.1. Of course BD costs more, but then look at Toshibas top model HDDVD player and its price, hmmmm it's right on par with the BD players.

Another thing that I always laugh at, people say BD can't do PIP and go to the studio and grab extra content...hmmmm, let's see I bought a movie to WATCH the movie, not listen to the jackass talk about why he did this scene this way or was going to do it this way, but all of sudden a bad case of the shites came over him and he had to leave his directing chair for a few minutes. I never watched extra content on DVD, so why would I start now? This point when brought up is just really dumb to me because if I was ever over somebodies house to watch a movie and they put on the damn director's commentary or PIP, I would just get up and leave. There is no real way to enjoy a movie with that extra crap going on. I would rather the damn studios not put any of that shite on the discs and maybe lower the prices some. They could then sell an extra disc for those people that want that crap for a small amount instead of forcing it upon everyone.

11:58 AM  
Blogger G said...

I purchased a HD-DVD player with 1080p/24Frames capability to go with a TV that also runs 1080p/24. Picture is great!

How is BluRay better? It isn't. In the end BluRay or HDDVD will only be as good as the studios that put them together. BluRay has 50 Gig and HD has 30, but that is only PART of the story. Compression is another part. Space used on the disc is another. After all, if BluRay Movies are using half the space, is it better than a HD DVD?

One thing that annoys me is that the combo Discs are more expensive. There is NO WAY a combo disc should cost $5 or more than a single HD disc. After all, I see DVDs for about $1 all the time. Save me the trouble and package the DVD as a two pack with the HD-DVD if its a must.

10:42 AM  
Blogger Clayton said...

You're right, the 50gb discs wont matter if compression isn't done right... But compression is being done right. See one of the problems isn't so much because of the 30gb discs (by the way, don't compare WB discs as the 50gb discs they release are ported over from HD DVD and therefor obviously wouldn't fill all of the 50gb disc), it's because of bandwidth and bitrates. On HD DVD, the peak bitrate for video that you can reach is around 30mbps. On Blu-Ray, the peak is 50. That's quite the difference, and believe me, it matters. Speaking of WB titles, all you have to do is take a look at a movie like Troy. There's actual compression artifacts in the darker scenes (which ussually are around 7mbps). For most of the film, it hovers around 15mbps. It's like that on a lot of WB ports. One of the problems with a low bitrate like that is that it doesn't preserve film grain very well. So, like I said, you are right, the disc space wouldn't matter if the compression isn't done right. However, the compression is and normally (from a non-nuetral studio) it takes full advantage of the 50gb.

9:54 AM  
Blogger G said...

If the average bit rate is 15mbps, that is still far below the HD-DVD limit of 30. You're not selling me on it.

'Believe me it matters.' Have you had an impartial person see a difference? All the blogs I read have such polarizing opinions it seems like Sony and Toshiba has their employees out in force. In the store, I could not tell a substantial difference.

How much of the 50 Gig BR Disc is used for the average movie? Take Troy, since it seems like you have it.

8:28 AM  
Blogger Clayton said...

Troy is around 30gb. But you must not have read what I said. WB ports over their titles. That's why the bitrate is so low on a title like Troy. Yes, HD DVD can peak at around 30 when not using any sort of HD audio, however most titles like Troy stay around 15. If you'd like to visit http://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=3338
They can break it down pretty simply for you. Yes, that is a biased site, however that's just the simple mathematics of it. No way to be biased there. And of course you can't tell the difference in the stores. Their TV's aren't set up to optimize what's being input, which would be impossible anyway due to lighting and all sorts of other factors.

8:47 PM  
Blogger Mike said...

What if they had a format war and nobody came? Ninety percent of recent purchasers chose regular good old dvd. Most people Ive talked to could care less about the format war, and most seem to think theres not enough difference between an upconverted dvd and blu-ray / hd-dvd. Seen it more than once myself, and not impressed enough to shell out money for the difference yet. Once they get below $150 regular price maybe I'll buy, but Ill bet it wont be blu-ray first to do it. Disc space means squat unless you burn huge files- most people do not. What they see is price. On a final note I find it funny when I read all to often the 1080p over 1080I. From what I've read, that means squat as well. Follow this link if you don't believe me.
http://www.hometheatermag.com/gearworks/1106gear/

7:21 PM  
Blogger Clayton said...

The difference between 1080i and 1080p all depends on the TV. If the TV doesn't de-interlace the 1080i correctly (which most don't), then yes, 1080p would look better. One of the things that makes the most difference to me is the 24fps. But Mike is right, no one is buying into this war. Unfortunately, price shouldn't matter. If you look at Toshiba, they've had their little $100 fire sales to get rid of their HD-A2's, but it still didn't increase software sales for them. Truly I think the price argument has been made a thousand times before, and HD DVD proved it wasn't all about price. The way I see it, you pay $100 for a cheap piece of equipment, you get a cheap piece of equipment. One that doesn't load menus correctly, freezes, skips, randomly fast forwards, has a long load time (both formats have that, except on the PS3 and newer Blu-Ray players). It also doesn't have 7.1 sound or 1080p (again, for me, it's the 24fps that matters the most). Basically what everything seems to boil down to is one format that people say is "good enough" and settles for, while there's another format that doesn't require comprimise (you can have both, great picture and great sound at the same time).

9:42 AM  
Blogger jb65 said...

I originally gave in and purchased a Sony PS3 last year for the following reasons:
1. Blu-Ray movie format and ultimate theater advantages
2. Gaming and entertainment

After adding several new Blu-Ray titles to my dvd collection, I was frustrated to find that some movie titles are only available on one format or another.

Today, I got payback.
I purchased a Toshiba HD-DVD player for under $200 and got seven free movies.

At this point I really don't care who wins the war. I am set either way at least for the next couple of years.

My recommendations are, let the war rage on and let the consumer take advantage of the awesome sales that each side is offering to promote their hardware in anticipation of the software.

8:03 PM  
Blogger Clayton said...

Yeah I don't advise what the last poster said at all. The more people that do that, the longer this format war will go on and the less likely the HD media will survive.

9:19 AM  
Blogger c_rey4 said...

I've worked my way through college at an electronics store and I've seen almost every version of HD DVD player that has been released as well as Blu-Ray. In store, our tv's are set on display with no adjustments. We have HD DVD players as well as Blu-Ray players hooked up, all through hdmi. In general, I've had many customers ask me "what's up with this blu-ray and hd dvd stuff?" I think advertising could come a long way and help either format, and I believe they are doing a much better job with this now.

Unfortunately to the average customer though, they see HD DVD and Blu-Ray being the exact same thing, but they find a cheaper hd dvd player. In store, both formats look amazing and would be hard to differentiate. After seeing both formats on a daily basis and getting to use each blu-ray player and hd dvd player, I decided to go the blu-ray route. I think different people have different uses for their player. Not everyone has 7.1 surround sound systems and 1080p tvs. So they can go a little cheaper and get an hd dvd player. However, for me, I want that 1080p/24fps and 7.1 surround sound for not that much more. Plus I prefer the movies that have been/will be released on blu-ray.

This point has been mentioned before also, but I will reiterate it. The super cheap Toshiba A2 was unfortunately a piece of junk. It's not fair to call it junk, but it is not in the same ballpark as any blu-ray player. It was pretty much a really nice upconverting dvd player. This A2 cannot be used in the argument of how HD DVD is a better format than Blu-Ray.

What I think should happen is all the companies need to come together and develop the formats and work together. Competition has been the basis of our economy for as long as our economy has existed. But cooperation would really help expand and develop these formats. A lot of people would argue that prices wouldn't come down without the competition. But people won't pay more than they are able and willing which would drive down prices.

All in all, at this moment I prefer Blu-Ray and I feel it is the superior format.

11:41 PM  
Blogger Clayton said...

Now that WB switched to Blu-Ray exclusive, I'd say that the end is pretty near.

8:30 PM  
Blogger IRISHGOD33 said...

oh yes...by May when the conversion is complete...HD DVD is done for...I'll be going out to buy my LG BH-100 because I'm not going to replace all of my HD DVDs. Maybe I'll use this as an excuse to get the PS3?! Either way...that was the final nail in the coffin for HD DVD. They sold all those players but the disc sales weren't there for WB to go HD DVD. I still say it's Disney's fault. When I heard that they are starting to release their Platinum Series movies on Blu-Ray....I knew HD DVD was in trouble.

7:39 AM  
Blogger coachdrivr said...

Why haven't there been any talk of making a BLU RAY add on for the HD DVD players ??. They do have a USB port to do that. It would make it available for people to play either. They could do it both ways and make it available for BLU RAY players to play the HD DVD'S also. Or is it just the goal to alienate the consumers that have already bought HD DVD players ?? Just a thought

4:55 PM  

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